By Ngunjiri Wambugu via FB
RAILA & RUTO WORKING TOGETHER?
1. Ruto is a viable presidential aspirant ONLY because a section – not more than 30% – of Mt Kenya voters support him. But he knows that this 30% supports him because they think Raila is the only other option and they can’t support Raila. They are even willing to go against Uhuru but ONLY on this issue. (The rest – 70% – could support Raila, if Uhuru said so). This is the ONLY reason there is a 30/70 divide in Mt Kenya.
2. If Ruto and Raila were to work together, we are back to 2007. Mt Kenya would UNITE AWAY from both. If Uhuru did not support the Raila/Ruto coalition he would then easily swing the region to support anyone else. The motivations that usually kick in to motivate a focused and united political direction in the region would then kick in and the entire 8M Mt Kenya votes would be in one basket. ( … and this is how a coalition that would otherwise never have made it could easily lead the next government!)
3. But both Ruto and Raila understand this. They are extremely ruthless, brilliant and experienced politicians. But they also know that Uhuru has proven to be all these things and more, than them. Are they willing to gamble against him knowing that if they gamble they might lose – while he stands to lose nothing whatever happens?
This is one of the options I am working on for my #UONMastersClassThesis. It’s purely a theoretical analysis so makasiriko is a NO.