Putting all the scenarios into play, he detailed a scenario that would see the election process hold the country hostage for more than six months- resulting in President Uhuru Kenyatta holding office until April 2023.
The analyst noted that the elections would be held on August 9, 2022, according to the Constitution. Soon after the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) would announce the results after seven days. (August 16).
According to Ngunyi, within the time frame, no candidate is likely to meet the 50+1 threshold required in the Presidential bid meaning that inevitably the country would head to a runoff.
He noted that as previous elections depict, the results would be contested meaning that the case would head to the Judiciary.
In this scenario, he pointed out that the Supreme Court would invalidate the elections completely meaning that Kenyans would have to vote for the exact same candidates for a second time.
Further, he acknowledged that the process may be halted if any candidate withdraws their candidature. This, he stated, would mean the elections to stop and Kenyans would go back to the nominations stage.
This process would take an accumulative total of 131 days.
According to the Elections Act, whenever a Presidential election is to be held, a notice must be sent to the public for 60 days. In total, the process would take 191 days which is roughly 6 months.
He noted that the process would ultimately end in April 2023, and the country would allegedly lose Ksh5 trillion due to the election process.
While revealing the other possible ultimatums, he noted that the best-case scenario would have the new President sworn in on December 13, 2022, after going through run-off elections between the two top Presidential candidates in the August elections.
Ngunyi’s scenarios mirror the 2017 elections where the Supreme Court nullified the Presidential elections which later led Kenyans to fresh polls- a historic judgement that made headlines across the world.