How to know who will win 2022 presidential vote

How to know who will win 2022 presidential vote

Knowing who Kenya’s next head of state will be has been an elephant task for quite awhile because there are a range of factors that play out whenever we near electioneering season.

Among all these factors including Kenyan highly ethnicised society , there’s the famous ‘deep state’, a clique of influential individuals meeting up as early as a previous general election concludes and decide who to be the next to occupy State House in the next election. Thereafter the “deep state” mobilizes and channels resources towards the agendas of the candidate they have picked for presidency. But at this time, it’s still not clear to majority who exactly ” the deep state” has picked to be next president because of its underneath nature of operation. So, it has always been difficult to really ascertain who Kenya’s next president will be.

However, observing from the past political activities that includes ethnic groupings and behaviors, it can be established and the next occupant of the house on the hill can be predicted. There’s particularly one visible factor that has openly stood out all through Kenya’s elections except in 1978 when Former President Jomo Kenyatta’s term was cut short by his death and his deputy Daniel Arap Moi took over. And I am pursuaded to believe therefore that in consideration of this factor, Daniel Moi wouldn’t have become Kenya’s president, had Jomo Kenyatta not died.

Kenya is a highly enthnicised society. Our politics has also been highly enthnicised. Kenyans themselves have since independence been primordially wired to think and reason based upon their respective ethnic groups. The gravity and intensity of this ethnicism has been so deep among the Luo ethnic group.

Among the over 42 ethnic groups in Kenya, it is only the Luo ethnic group that has single-handedly decided who becomes the president in Kenya except in 1978. I want us to peruse through Kenya’s individual general election and confirm that indeed the Luo ethnic group has been the underlying factor determining who becomes a president in Kenya.

Immediately Daniel Arap Moi’s presidential term came to an end in 2002, the Luo ethnic group, endorsed the candidature of Starnley Emilio Mwai Kibaki and he became president. In 2007, they rejected the same Mwai Kibaki they endorsed in 2002 and Kibaki was re-elected in 2007 and he became president. Kindly note the term REJECTED.

In 2013, the Luo ethnic group rejected the candidature of Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta terming him as an ICC suspect and Kenyans overwhelmingly elected Uhuru Kenyatta. Again, the Luo ethnic group determined Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya’s fourth president. In 2017, when Uhuru asked that he be re-elected to finish the promises he made to Kenyans, again the Luo ethnic group rejected him and Kenyans overwhelmingly re-elected Uhuru.

Based on the historical observations above, and going forward, methink inorder to know who Kenya’s fifth president will be , we should keenly observe who among the individuals (who have openly disclosed that they will be running for president in 2022) is the Luo ethnic group is either endorsing or rejecting.

If you ask me, I will settle on a candidate they are rejecting to be Kenya’s fifth president because based on the past observations, they have rejected candidates three times but only endorsed once and the candidate they have rejected has been elected and re-elected president of Kenya.

NB: There are higher chances that a candidate that the Luo ethnic group is rejecting now will be the fifth president of Kenya.
Hon Omeno T.N.

How to know who will win 2022 presidential vote


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.